Postscript
19 September 2014.
A good result. A clear win
for No without humiliating the Yes cause who will have the satisfaction of
changing British politics in their favour for ever, surely a very satisfactory
consolation prize.
It was a foregone win-win for
Alex Salmond, and it may well be a good thing for England that he, or his
successor as SNP leader, will now drive the negotiations to implement the
unionist promises that will be seen by some as having been decisive. That these
may now lead to the Tories delivering on their 2010 manifesto promise, albeit
four years late, is a step in the right direction and they must not be allowed
to wriggle out it.
The real change, however,
will come with the general election in a mere eight months time. There is the
prospect of a Labour win overall, courtesy of Scottish Labour MPs, with a Tory
majority in England and possibly England and Wales. If ‘English votes for
English laws’ were to be in effect Labour could be hobbled, able to rule the UK
but not England. One can even envisage Scottish Labour MPs propping up the
government in a vote of confidence, to the fury of English Tories. It would be
stalemate, a situation even worse than the emasculation of the present
government by the Liberal Democrats.
But past performance is no
guide to the future as the fund managers are obliged to remind us. How many SNP
candidates (they will presumably again contest every seat) would be elected? In
2010 their vote exceeded the Labour vote in eight seats, though two of those
went to the LibDems, and they were within fewer than1800 votes (just two in one
case) of the LibDems in a further seven. None of those, apart from Dundee
East, was in the Yes vote majority areas of the referendum, raising the juicy
prospect of perhaps twenty to twenty-five SNP members at Westminster. After his
reception in Scotland during the campaign Ed Miliband can hardly relish the
prospect of defending such seats.
Next fixture to look forward
to: Scotland v. England (friendly) at Celtic Park in November.
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